5/ The Midterms Hub also shows what the forecasts might mean for policy.
The 2026 US Midterms Tracker is officially live! You’ll find continuously updated forecasts from the Metaculus community on every race that matters: Senate, House, governors -- plus key drivers, electoral consequences, & other factors associated with the elections. 🧵
4/ And 35 seats are in play this cycle, including two special elections: Ohio and Florida, replacing Vance & Rubio. There’s a lot that can move between now & November.
Starts Friday: the Animal Futures Tournament on Metaculus.
Forecast 16 decision-relevant questions on farmed animal welfare, alternative proteins, wild animal welfare, AI, and animal futures.
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Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before 2027?
Current community forecast: 12% chance.
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3/ The Senate math is tight. Forecasters' aggregate forecast right now is a tied chamber, with the middle 50% of forecasts ranging from a 2-seat Democratic edge to a 3-seat Republican edge.
2/ House: 89% chance Democrats retake it | Senate: 59% chance Republicans retain the chamber
Most likely outcome: split Congress; Rep Senate, Dem House (49%)
1/ The Tracker is also connected to the Midterms Tournament, which carries a $10k prize pool.
Here’s what the community is currently forecasting 👇
Real-time forecasts from the Metaculus community on the 2026 US midterm elections.
www.metaculus.com
6/ What’s your read on these elections & issues?
These numbers update in real time as forecasters weigh in. Latest always here: www.metaculus.com/midterms-2026/
If you think you can call it accurately, log your predictions in the tournament: metaculus.com/tournament/m...
$10k prize pool
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.
The Animal Futures Tournament is on Metaculus. Forecast decision-relevant questions on farmed animal welfare, alternative proteins, wild animal welfare, AI, and animal futures.
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will determine control of the House and Senate for the remainder of President Trump's term, along with governorships across the states. The balance of Congress shapes w...
www.metaculus.com
Real-time forecasts from the Metaculus community on the 2026 US midterm elections.
