Notice that Dem primary voting in TX is much more predictable based on geography than GOP primary voting.
Racial demographics structure Dem primaries & Americans are geographically segregated by race, so...
This is something Gall Sigler & I wrote about in the paper flagged 👇.
Interested in the accuracy of primary polls?
In this paper (URL in the replies), 3 co-authors & I detail the polling failures in the 2023 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary, where virtually none of the polls showed Mayor Parker winning. (Spoiler alert: I said "Mayor.")
Curious about the role of ideology in primaries?
G Sigler & I published in @polbehavior.bsky.social using survey data & precinct-level results to examine the role of ideology in primary voting.
Ideology clearly shapes voting, but successful candidates build cross-bloc coalitions.
URL 👇
1 thing about 2016 Trump supporters' foreign policy attitudes--I wrote about for 538 (URL 👇)--is that they weren't especially pro Iraq War back in 2007. But they were more likely to describe themselves as hawks.
They weren't so much isolationist as valuing shows of American 💪.
URL: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
URL: fivethirtyeight.com/features/wha...
URL: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Want to understand young voters?
An unparalleled starting point is this new podcast by Penn's own Glynn Boltman. Boltman interviews >60 young people in 3 swing states, uncovering key insights about why many young people don't identify as political (or take polls).
URLs👇
In September/October 2024, I asked a population-based US sample via NORC about their sympathies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict & their presidential leanings.
Here's how the results break down, with presidential support (columns) given conditional on sympathies (rows).
Highly, highly recommend.
Apple Podcast link: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
Spotify link:
creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/...
America’s major political parties have been riven by ideological factions which contest for power partly through partisan primaries. Ideological factions can only be grounded in voting behavior to the...
Typically, at this point in a presidential election cycle, punditry is focused on campaign tactics and delegate counts — who is advertising where, who is endor…
Government Podcast · Young Americans vote less than any other age group. They don't answer polls. They swipe past political content. And most of them will tell you they're just not that into politics....
Curious about the role of ideology in primaries?
G Sigler & I published in @polbehavior.bsky.social using survey data & precinct-level results to examine the role of ideology in primary voting.
Ideology clearly shapes voting, but successful candidates build cross-bloc coalitions.
URL 👇
