CIO of the cookie cabinet. Former sell-side, former buy-side. Not Jon Hamm. Trying to be Lou Mannheim. Wants coffee.
Lou Mannheim
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Interesting game theory here. Iran has the advantage only if the US believes that the strait will reopen if the US leaves. BUT, if Iran convinces everyone that the strait will be closed forever, then the US will be forced to go "all in".
“22% of the world’s traded urea, 24% of its aluminium, a third of its helium and 45% of its sulphur comes from the region”.
The Iran war is roiling commodities far beyond oil
economist.com/finance-and-...
from The Economist
Semis and data center are pulling down the SPX. But even the equal weighted index is weak today. (See below.) Not a great sign after two big down days last week, and some constructive comments from Powell this morning.
Low end consumer hurting?
Anyone know why consumer staples are getting whacked today?
The #BondiTop 📉
Insert the Dumbledore shrug gif here.
MS:
".. Starting from a disruption of roughly 20 mb/d, subtracting around 4.3 mb/d from the Saudi bypass, .. around 2 mb/d from escorted convoys in an optimistic case, and perhaps 2 mb/d from strategic stock releases still leaves the market short by around 11 mb/d."
Sees Brent Q2 avg: $110
