#ResolvePM Vic(state) not as bad for Vic Labor as others but still quite bad ALP 26 L-NP 26 ON 24 Grn 12 IND 5 others 7.
My 2PP estimate 51.7 to L-NP (-1.1) This would probably be a hung parliament of some kind, not even clear Coalition would win off that.
DemosAU WA state level poll
TPP: ALP 53 (-4) LIB 47 (+4)
Primaries: ALP 33 (-3) LIB 23 (+2) NAT 2 (-2) ON 18 (+1) GRN 12 (-1) OTH 11 (+2)
demosau.com/news/labor-r... #wapol
Detailed report
demosau.com/wp-content/u...
Sample 1015 voters, 9 May - 11 June, (+/-) since Feb
The AFR seems to be digging in on a trainwreck of misleading analysis in order to save its misleading headline. At the least the headline should be changed now that its premise has been debunked.
Article notes that in the June half of the sample ON was on 28 and leading on primaries. That would only be c. 500 sample so don't place too much weight on that.
In Elizabeth the figure was 33.15% so more or less a third. But in this case there was a factor driving it up: donkey voting. The Greens and ON candidates were 1 and 2 on the ballot. This should have been noted.
#Morgan ALP 28 L-NP 17 ON 29.5 Grn 14 Ind/other 11.5
2PP respondent prefs 54.5 to ALP (-1.5)
2PP last-election 54.5 to ALP (+0.5)
my conversion 54.2 (+0.6)
vs ON respondent prefs 53 to ALP (-0.5)
my conversion 51.8 (+0.5)
Monthly Resolves coming from July.
Aside from the revised version still failing to note that this is *not* surprising, given that so many transferred votes came via the Greens and that those were not all 1 Greens votes, in Reynell the figure was 27%, closer to a quarter than a third.
Excellent article by @antonygreenelec.bsky.social dealing with the many, many problems in a recent AFR article.
There are also fresh problems with the corrected version from June 12 which Antony has not seen.
antonygreen.com.au/the-financia...
More pressure on Jane Howlett over the TasRacing text controversy. More evidence Howlett's office knew about the message. #politas
www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmani...
