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Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
Kevin Bonham
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(* That should be Coalition majority not Liberal. Although ...)
Debatable. SA-B well out from the election polled 32% in one Newspoll with n=800, 28.5% in a Morgan, no other public polls above 24.
Labor could lose about half their seats though they might be saved by weak Liberal preferences to ON in a few. I don't think you'd really see ALP 21 Grn 15 but if you did and if the Liberals put the Greens ahead of Labor again then Labor might lose opposition status to ON.
Whether the Liberals would do that again is an elephant in the room for this election - people are talking up Green prospects but if the Liberals put them last they could even lose seats they have. Would the Liberals really put the Greens above Labor post Bondi?
DemosAU have a tendency to have major party votes a bit lower than other polls but their track record so far is quite good. I'd read that if it happened as probably a Liberal majority.
I'm intending to do a Vic roundup post Resolve when it comes out which I expect will be next week sometime. If time permits I'll have a go at a model but time probably won't!
Noting the caveat about DemosAU getting high minor party shares again, this particular reading is a bit like what is going on with UK polling lately.
Just to tip something over one of my previous tweets, if this poll happened at an election it is SO bad for Labor that they could fall out of the 2CP not only in the seats the Greens hold but also in some of their own.
DemosAU Vic (state) ALP 21 L-NP 30 ON 23 Grn 15 other 11 2PP (adjusted last-election) 55-45 to L-NP (I get this too) Allan net -39 Wilson net +10 #springst
Party registration news: Walter Villatora is now the registered officer of the Australian Federation Party (which has reverted to its old name after being Trumpet of Patriots at the last election). For background on why this is interesting see www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...