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Jared Wesley

Third: strategic voting. Federally, many centre-left voters in Alberta shift to Liberals to block Conservatives. Carney has made the Liberal brand even more palatable -- even popular on its own. Provincially, that option doesn't exist.

Think about that for a second. Hundreds of thousands of Albertans who voted NDP provincially did *not* vote NDP federally. What’s going on?

Second: ideological positioning. The Alberta NDP has established itself as more centrist, pragmatic, and “Alberta-first." The federal NDP has... not. Voters respond accordingly.

Bottom line: The Alberta NDP has already distinguished itself from the federal party in the eyes of many Alberta voters. Nenshi's moves against Lewis appear geared to consolidating or building on Notley's gains in this regard.

First: brand separation. For many voters, Alberta NDP ≠ Federal NDP. They’re seen as fundamentally different political options. This is not unique to Alberta. Many of Canada's provincial party systems are truncated. The degree of truncation in Alberta (and the West) is marked, though.

Let’s look at the numbers: Alberta NDP (2023): 777K votes (44%) Federal NDP in Alberta (2025): 143K votes (6%) That’s a 5x difference. In the same province. The largest gap in the country. For all the talk of the ANDP needing to break away from the federal party, most of their voters have.

Avi Lewis isn't the second coming. (Just trying to cull my followers list.)

Fun fact: More people voted in the 2024 Alberta NDP leadership race than in the 2026 federal NDP race.

Despite what you might hear from some in the chattering classes, Alberta voters behave completely differently depending on whether it’s a provincial or federal election. 🧵

The level of disdain and condescension among so many Avi Lewis supporters is shocking. Don't agree with them? You lack empathy and intelligence, and have "mediocre values."