Totally agree! We did a quick analysis and some scenario models a few weeks ago and came to a similar conclusion -- fast and early but not unprecedented. An early start may also lead to earlier susceptible depletion.
zenodo.org/records/1770...
Similar from WHO: www.who.int/emergencies/...
The final piece of my PhD work is now published in Science Translational Medicine! We present a new framework to jointly infer epidemiological and antigenic parameters from multi-pathogen population serological studies🦠
www.science.org/stoken/autho...
Delighted to share the (preprint) output of @mhairijan.bsky.social's Oxford visit:
SARS-CoV-2 Neutralising Antibody Profiles Reveal Variant Specific Antibody Dynamics and Regional Differences in Infection Histories in Malawi. dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
It was absolutely wonderful to write something again with @skissler.bsky.social, @danlarremore.bsky.social and Aishani Aatresh. Here's our new review/perspective on the value of measuring and modelling viral kinetics as part of routine surveillance: royalsocietypublishing.org/rstb/article...
Great take. We looked at the data a few weeks ago and concluded that other than starting early, this year's dynamics are comparable to previous bad seasons. Our scenario models suggest a peak in infections (not hospitalisations which lag 1/2 weeks) in early/mid December.
zenodo.org/records/1770...
🧵 Is it a super flu year? Who knows, but I think the current reporting is stupid.
A pissed off thread using data.
Firstly - here are today's headlines and some from the last 3 years... spot the difference. 1/10
WHO Disease Update Notification:
Seasonal influenza
🦠Since August 2025, there's been a rapid increase of A(H3N2) J.2.4.1 subclade K driving early & prolonged seasons
🦠Vaccine helps against hospitalisation, unclear about milder impact
🦠K induces "normal" disease spectrum
www.who.int/emergencies/...
Random time-shift approximation enables hierarchical Bayesian inference of mechanistic within-host viral dynamics models on large datasets journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...
Many thanks also to @stevenriley.bsky.social @scauchemez.bsky.social @neher.io
@eales96.bsky.social, and Ben Cowling, Freya Shearer and Juliette Paireau for helpful discussion.
(18/18)
Coauthors: @punya-alahakoon.bsky.social @mishkendall.bsky.social @mghafari.bsky.social @chriswymant.bsky.social @christophraser.bsky.social and Alex Greenshields Watson, Rob Hinch, Luca Ferretti and Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths not on bsky.
(17/18)