Remember that recent paper claiming to show that "ideological bias" determined the results obtained by immigration policy research teams?
A careful, open-code reanalysis by @kauspurg.bsky.social & Josef Brรผderl finds that the result arises from a coding error. โ> doi.org/10.31222/osf...
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social)
Do opinion polls shape election results?
Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Michael Clemens
Werner Krause
Itโs almost as if they were ideologically predisposed toward finding ideological bias
Post-doc position at @scripts-berlin.eu! If you are a survey researcher interested in cross-national research on how people perceive liberalism, democracy etc, take a look! Youโll get to work with ๐ฅณ @swenhutter.bsky.social: www.wzb.eu/en/jobs/post...
Anita Gohdes
For the research project โPublic Attitudes towards the Liberal Scriptโ (PALS) at the Center for Civil Society Research, in collaboration with other research units and the Cluster of Excellence...
Remember that recent paper claiming to show that "ideological bias" determined the results obtained by immigration policy research teams?
A careful, open-code reanalysis by @kauspurg.bsky.social & Josef Brรผderl finds that the result arises from a coding error. โ> doi.org/10.31222/osf...
Today, the German city of Aue-Bad Schlema in Saxony will elect a new mayor.
The two candidates running in the second round are:
1) a CDU candidate
2) a neo-nazi politician from the militant and extreme-right "Freie Sachsen" who got 29% in the first round.
Michael Clemens
Ich freue mich sehr auf diese Woche, wo ich an drei Veranstaltungen im Rahmen der Aktionswoche "Wissenschaft gegen Faschismus" beteiligt bin.
Ultimately, the vote will be decided by mobilization patterns. Many cities (which will lean towards a no) update turnout numbers regularly:
Zรผrich: www.stadt-zuerich.ch/de/aktuell/n...
Basel: data.bs.ch/explore/data...
Bern: www.bern.ch/themen/stadt...
Urnengang vom 14. Juni 2026: Die Stimmbeteiligung der brieflichen Stimmabgabe betrรคgt derzeit 17,7 Prozent.
Moreover, analyses from @foeg.bsky.social show that this initiative has received far more media coverage than any other direct democratic proposal since 2018 and that the tonality was mostly negative.
In 11 days, Switzerland will vote on a far-right proposal to cap the population at 10 million.
The latest polls from @leewas.bsky.social and GfS both now show a tendency towards a 'no' vote, but the race remains incredibly tight and it is not possible to predict the result yet.
Ich kann das alles nicht mehr
Reto Mitteregger
Reto Mitteregger
Reto Mitteregger
๐๐ฎ๐ง ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ค๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ซ๐ก๐๐ข๐ญ ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ง ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐-๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ง-๐๐๐ก๐ฐ๐๐ข๐ณ: Gemรคss der 2. Welle der @20min.ch /Tamedia-Umfrage von @leewas.bsky.social sagen 52% Nein zur SVP-Initiative (47% Ja, 1% Unentschiedene).
Die SVP-Basis stimmt geschlossen zu. Alle anderen Parteien lehnten die Volksinitiative ab
