The quality of Tesla's earnings in 2025 was its worst (blue = real profits, red = regulatory credits): 85% of operating profit came from taxpayers (regulatory credits), 80% of which Americans provided.
$TSLA
Motorhead
This is a sign of weak institutional interest in the SpaceX IPO due to the shady acquisition of xAI at a $250 billion valuation in February.
$TSLA $APO
cc: @keubiko.bsky.social
Nobody's talking about this: The end of US GHG credit sales in Feb, together with the loss of EU credit sales, should pose at least a $1B profit headwind in 2026.
I'm not short enough $TSLA but look forward to shorting the pop.
Article here: bradmunchen.substack.com/p/teslas-1-b...
Motorhead
Blame is 100% on you if you're still listening to this guy:
Motorhead
Saw Michigan ad this weekend offering Musk's "Starlink Internet Services"! Costs between $80-$120 per month & upfront equipment costs approx $350 w/option to rent or purchase hardware. SpaceX has REC'D over $22 BILLION in GOVT GRANTS since 2008! $885 MILLION to Starlink! WANTS US TO PAY TWICE! NOPE!
Strider Reloaded
🔥 THE FBI DIRECTOR GOT HACKED. BY IRAN. FROM IRAN. AND NOW HE’S OFFERING $10 MILLION TO CATCH THEM. IN IRAN. LOL.
open.substack.com/pub/deanblun...
Fun fact: 17% of retail $TSLA holders voted "Against" Musk's 2025 CEO Performance Award last November.
If they all sold at once to buy into SpaceX's IPO:
1) It's 6% of Tesla's shares outstanding.
2) And 4 days of Tesla's 30-day avg trading volume.
Musk is so scared about $TSLA falling back to $100 or less that he's blocking *images* of negative articles about China's collapsing EV industry.
What a paranoid moron. 🤡🤡🤡
Peter Benn
Making chips isn't cheap, & it's much harder than making bad 4680 battery cells.
Yet Musk just started spinning his "Terafab" story in full force to keep investors' eyes off his mounting failures (FSD, xAI, & Optimus), & to form an excuse for $TSLA to finance.
open.substack.com/pub/bradmunc...
Motorhead
Motorhead
How will the Tesla/SpaceX Terafab be in "volume production" of 2nm chips by 2030 if ASML has no supply of High-NA EUVs through 2028 & even the experts need 18 months to get new EUVs running properly?
Musk told lots of lies last night because he's desperate, but this is the easiest one to debunk.
The market hasn't fully factored in the end of Tesla's GHG credit sales in the US & lower credit sales in Europe.
Musk's plan to build a "Terafab" that matches TSMC's 2nm scale by 2030 is laughable, but it provides a further pump for his SpaceX IPO & an excuse for Tesla to finance.
