Post-eday arrivals are a tiny share of total vote in California
In Orange County for example, it’s just 2% of the total cast in this primary
I don’t think Ds will intentionally hold ballots nearly as long in November, but the electorate will be younger and less white
So the blueshift will prob be smaller in Nov, but it’ll def still be there
Since its primary day in Maine I’ll temporarily break from my prohibition on acknowledging its existence until November
As Platner, I’d feel great above 80% and would be concerned below 2/3 of the vote
Preregistering bc I’m sure regardless of the result the takes will fly
Caveat that votes are still left out everywhere, here’s a rough look at the margin shifts in competitive CA districts as the vote count progressed
Each CD shifted (so far) 2-6% left from the initial results, and 5-9% left from Wed morning results
How
Insane that this election could feasibly come down to the votes sent to the electoral authority for review
Around 60% of those are from Lima and another 10% or so from Keiko-friendly territory 😵💫
It looks like Sanchez is going to win the domestic vote but lose the election overall bc of the diaspora (here’s Miami and Orlando 😶)
Losing an election and Keiko finally getting a win because Miami is Like That is crazy
SC hasn’t reported the partisan breakdown of primary turnout since last Tuesday, but I’d guess at least 200k D votes cast early
That would already exceed total Dem primary turnout from 2022, and is approaching the ~240k D votes total in 2018
