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Gasoline prices have soared by as much as 40% across Moscow after Ukrainian drone strikes hit the capital’s main oil refinery in Kapotnya on June 18, crippling the remaining capacity at the Moscow Oil Refinery. The attack has made a critical impact on the city, which relies heavily on this facility, leading to long lines at gas stations and sparking an intense rush to stock up on fuel. A series of drone attacks attributed to Ukraine have targeted Russian oil refineries at least 40 times since the start of 2026, creating an unprecedented fuel shortage in Moscow. Residents are now filling not just gas cans but entire fuel barrels, as panic buying spreads through the capital. Muscovites have begun topping off their tanks in anticipation of further trouble, with queues growing at city gas stations. While the lines aren’t yet as severe as those reported in occupied Crimea and the Krasnodar region-areas already hit hard by fuel shortages-they are becoming noticeable, including at stations outside the city where demand is slightly lower. The price shock has hit drivers hard. On June 18, customers reported that "Neftmagistral," Moscow’s largest independent fuel retailer, raised gasoline prices by 30%. Photos shared online show regular AI-92 selling for 85.99 rubles per liter, AI-95 for 94.99 rubles, and AI-100 reaching 109 rubles. Experts warn that refinery losses are especially acute near Moscow. Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former head of a Gazprom Neft department, stressed that every single refinery supplying Moscow has come under attack-including those in Yaroslavl, Ryazan, and Kstovo. Since June 16, the Gazprom Neft-owned Moscow Oil Refinery, responsible for up to 40% of Moscow’s fuel supply, has come to a standstill. This facility processes 11 million tons of crude oil annually and provides 70% of the region’s gasoline and jet fuel. This week, Ukrainian drones disabled both primary refining units at the Kapotnya plant, damaging auxiliary equipment, fuel storage tanks, pipelines, and secondary processing equipment. As of now, following the latest strike, Moscow has effectively lost all of its local refining capacity. Vakulenko points out that 14% of all passenger cars in Russia are registered in Moscow and the surrounding region, which also accounts for 19% of the nation’s automotive freight volume and 40% of air passenger traffic. He estimates that the strikes on the Moscow Oil Refinery and on Tatneft’s Taneko plant in Nizhnekamsk have slashed Russia’s overall oil refining output by 600,000 barrels per day. Vakulenko warns that the fuel situation in Russia-and in Moscow in particular-is now approaching crisis levels. Warning signs are multiplying. Queues have grown at gas stations in the Moscow suburbs, driving the city’s main retailers-Tatneft, ORTK, Rosneft, and Lukoil-to impose restrictions on fuel purchases. "Neftemagistral," one of the largest independent chains, has hiked AI-95 prices up to 94.99 rubles per liter, with AI-92 at 85.99 rubles and diesel fuel at 99.99 rubles. According to Rosstat, retail fuel prices at Russian filling stations have jumped nearly 1% a week for five straight weeks. Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have risen 6.6%-double the pace of inflation and twice as fast as any comparable period since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. To ease the gasoline crunch, the Russian government has lowered fuel quality requirements, started procuring gasoline from Asia and Belarus, and is considering allowing oil companies to sell less through exchanges to prioritize agricultural producers and "socially significant" consumers such as government agencies, the military, and hospitals. The greater Moscow area is Russia’s largest transportation hub, and the Moscow Oil Refinery produces about a third of the local fuel market’s supply, covering 40% of Moscow’s gasoline and 50% of its diesel needs. Drone attacks have already hit the other facilities supplying Moscow. As the threat grows, local analyst Andrey Makhovsky predicts further rationing and potential disruptions are likely-though he says "Moscow will not be left without gasoline." Vakulenko cautions that too many variables remain to predict a full-blown shortage outright: "Can Ukraine maintain or increase the intensity of its attacks? How fast can Russia repair the refineries? And how much emergency and repair capacity remains after repeated hits? Ryazan’s refinery alone has been hit 15 times," he notes. The crisis could also affect aviation fuel supplies. The Kapotnya plant is Moscow’s single biggest supplier of jet fuel but not the only one. Besides Gazprom Neft, which owns the facility, Rosneft also delivers fuel to Moscow’s airports (albeit in smaller volumes). After the previous strike on the Moscow refinery, the Russian Railways set up a special coordination team to prioritize moving jet fuel to airports. But aviation fuel shortages are not limited to Moscow. Russia imposed its first ban on jet fuel exports on June 1, prompting several major airports to restrict refueling of airplanes as prices continue to rise. The Kremlin waited more than a day to comment on what analysts have called the largest mass drone strike in the Moscow region since the beginning of the war. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov praised the “high performance of air defenses.” “Look for more footage from various cities in Ukraine. The footage is impressive-our armed forces’ strikes will continue,” he told Russians, downplaying the impact.