Russian troops are reportedly abandoning positions on the Kinburn Spit, a strategic stretch of land between the Black Sea and the Dnipro-Bug estuary that has been under occupation since 2022. According to the partisan group “ATESH,” Russian forces have begun withdrawing due to severe logistical failures and relentless Ukrainian drone attacks targeting their supply routes. Meanwhile, reports from occupied Kherson indicate that authorities are preparing to evacuate civilians to Crimea and relocate parts of the occupation administration.
The situation echoes Russia’s dramatic retreat from Kherson in 2022, as Ukrainian forces intensify efforts to sever supply lines in the south. Analysts at
Sources within ATESH say elements of Russia’s 337th Regiment are pulling out from northern and western areas of Kinburn Spit due to the near-total collapse of their logistics. Ammunition, fuel, and food are reportedly no longer reaching Russian units on the spit.
The partisan group claims the situation for Russian troops worsened when part of their forces were redeployed to the Zaporizhzhia front. Those left behind at the Kinburn Spit have taken heavy losses and received no reinforcements for some time. At the same time, Russia’s fire teams are struggling to counter Ukrainian drones, leading to mounting casualties.
So far, there is no official confirmation of a full-scale Russian withdrawal. Vladyslav Voloshyn, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern defense forces, said Kyiv could not independently verify partisan reports. However, he confirmed the defense forces are systematically targeting Russian logistics routes in occupied Kherson, which supply troops on the Kinburn Spit.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has highlighted reports of a Russian pullback, suggesting Ukraine’s campaign to target rear logistics is beginning to shape the battlefield. If Russia’s presence on Kinburn continues to shrink, analysts say this may mark a gradual weakening of Moscow’s grip on one of the northwest Black Sea’s key strongholds. Read more here:
The Kinburn Spit is a linchpin in the region, providing control over access to the Dnipro-Bug estuary and influencing the security of shipping lanes into Mykolaiv and Kherson ports. Russian forces have used the area to shell Ochakiv and monitor maritime traffic.
Military and political expert Dmytro Sniehyrev says the significance of the Kinburn Spit extends beyond the battlefield. “Control of the Kinburn Spit allows one to impact freedom of navigation and effectively regulate cargo flows to Ukrainian ports. If Russia were to retain this bridgehead during potential peace talks, it would continue to threaten Ukraine’s economic activity by potentially blocking port infrastructure. This gives the Kinburn Spit not just military but also economic importance.”
Sniehyrev believes recent Russian setbacks stem from Ukrainian strikes on logistics: “A ‘logistical lockdown’ imposed by Ukraine’s defense forces may have disrupted Russian supply chains. The troops on Kinburn rely critically on deliveries of fuel, food, and water. Without those, it’s extremely difficult to hold the position.”
He also notes possible political dimensions to Russia’s apparent steps back. “It’s reminiscent of the lead-up to Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson. A year ago, scenarios were discussed where Moscow might accept international oversight at Zaporizhzhia’s nuclear plant or consider yielding Kinburn as a step toward restoring freedom of navigation. So these recent moves could signal preparations for negotiations or be part of a larger plan to end the war.”
Sniehyrev stresses the importance of watching not just Kinburn but also Russian moves in occupied Kherson. “Vladimir Saldo, the Kremlin-appointed leader of Kherson’s occupied section, has issued a video urging civilians to evacuate immediately to Crimea. Saldo claims that special reception centers for Kherson residents are already operational in Crimea.”
According to media reports, Russia is indeed setting up mobile stations to process evacuees. Even more telling, Saldo revealed that part of the occupation administration is relocating from Kherson directly into Crimea-a move Sniehyrev sees as a very serious signal.
He argues that these developments bear a striking resemblance to the events preceding Russia’s retreat from right-bank Kherson in autumn 2022. “We’re seeing the same pattern-Ukraine bringing firepower to bear on enemy logistics. American military support, especially Western weapons like the Hornet system, has been instrumental in forcing Russia into these unpopular decisions.”
Sniehyrev does not rule out similar developments in other occupied territories: “Ukraine could regain control of remaining occupied areas in Kherson. The groundwork is being laid for a full logistical blockade of Russian forces. If Moscow again announces an ‘unpopular decision,’ it could look much like the Kherson withdrawal. Moving the occupational administration to Crimea is a logical step if that’s what’s coming.”
The implications stretch beyond Kinburn. “This could also mean changes in Zaporizhzhia, not just regarding the nuclear plant but possibly the formation of an international consortium. Russia is unlikely to simply abandon Enerhodar, but even that would be a positive sign,” he adds.
Sniehyrev points to recent progress on the Zaporizhzhia front, too. “Ukraine’s defense forces have made tactical advances near Stepnohirsk, Prymorske, and Kamyanske. This could either prompt Russia to gradually pull back or for the Kremlin to frame these moves as forced but ‘voluntary.’ The U.S. is exerting both military and political pressure, as seen in the escalation of strikes on Russian logistics.”
Still, Sniehyrev cautions against excessive optimism, noting the grave situation in Donetsk region. “At the same time, the situation around Kostyantynivka is very worrying. Russian troops have entrenched themselves in high-rises and industrial zones, positions that are extremely difficult to dislodge-as we saw in Bakhmut and Pokrovsk.”
The threat to Kramatorsk, another industrial hub, is growing as Russian artillery inches closer. “Kramatorsk isn’t just a large city-it’s home to key industrial facilities.”
He concludes that positive news in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia must be balanced against serious risks in Donbas. Sniehyrev urges observers to watch for three key signs: the occupation authorities’ calls for evacuation, the setup of reception points in Crimea, and the administrative relocation from Kherson to Crimea.
“These could signal that the preconditions are being set for a repeat of what happened with the Russian withdrawal from Kherson,” he said.
