Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social)
Do opinion polls shape election results?
Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
NEW -
Who Do Parties Speak To? Introducing the PSoGA: A New Comprehensive Database of Parties’ Social Group Appeals https://cup.org/43fmXFj
- @alonadolinsky.com, @lenamariahuber.bsky.social & @rwillh11.bsky.social
#FirstView
Upcoming Guest Talk! 🎤
We are happy to announce that Christoffer Green-Pedersen will be holding a talk on the topic "Coalition Voting in Comparative Perspective: Under What Circumstance do Voters take Coalitions into Account?" on 1st of June.
This builds on our earlier work in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, where we showed that margins of error shape vote choices at the top of the race. Now we find the same is true at electoral thresholds. Polls & their communication matter throughout the ballot. 👇🏁
doi.org/10.1111/1475...
Finally, the data stems from the Austrian National Election Survey project, which conducted an online panel survey with 23 waves, three of which assessed alt. media use. Big thanks to those making the data available via @aussda.bsky.social. See also for details/link: bsky.app/profile/schn...
5/5
Budget - Unis rufen zu Demos gegen Kürzungen auf
📅 Mittwoch, 27. Mai 2027 um 13.00
🏛️ Start am Ring vor dem Hauptgebäude der Uni Wien
www.univie.ac.at/aktuelles/pr...
New paper in IJPP📗 How does right-wing alternative media use affect political anxiety and anger as well as trust in political institutions? Drawing from 3 survey waves, RW alt. media use was positively related to anger. In turn, anger negatively affected pol. trust.
OA: doi.org/10.1177/1940...
1/5
💫 New paper!
@elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social
& I are happy to see our new paper published in open access with the @ejprjournal.bsky.social
Do group-targeted campaign pledges pay off electorally?
We test this with a preregistered survey experiment in Germany.
Institut für Staatswissenschaft / Department of Government
Christina Gahn
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social)
Do opinion polls shape election results?
Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Andreas Nanz
Andreas Nanz
Isabelle Guinaudeau
Julia Partheymüller
1/4 New article at EJPR!
@ChristinaGahn & I explore the impact of displaying margins of error (MoE) in public opinion polls on citizens' voting intentions.
We use a vignette experiment with > 3000 respondents in Germany.
Paper (Open Access): tinyurl.com/y28fvfk8
polisky commsky polcom
🎄🌟 Exciting news! 📊🎉
The AUTNES Online Panel Study 2017–2024 is here! 🎁🤩
Explore 23 survey waves to uncover the dynamics of voting behavior and public opinion in Austria. 🗳️🇦🇹
Access the data via #AUSSDA ➡️ doi.org/10.11587/HNU...
#AUTNES #ElectionStudies #Polisky #DataRelease #WeLoveData ❤️
