Reform mobilising non-voters looks to be a big story from this year’s locals. As so often, non-voters are the “dark matter” of politics - rarely discussed but so numerous they even mobilising a small slice can have big effects. Particularly in low turnout local elections.
Rob Ford
Frustrated with the election pundits talking as if votes only 'swing' from one party to another. I did some analysis of the results, and my modelling (based on votes only, not polls) suggests that the largest movement since 2024 local elections (by a long way) is from 'Did Not Vote' -> Reform
