Research Professor at NUPI @nupinytt.bsky.social
Co-chair of the ECPR Energy Policy, Politics & Governance Standing Group @ecprenergy.bsky.social
energy + climate + EU + dissent
Kacper Szulecki
True energy security doesn’t come from choosing a “better” gas supplier.
It comes from needing less gas at all:
✔️ faster renewables deployment
✔️ electrification and grid expansion
✔️ energy efficiency
✔️ serious monitoring of supplier concentration
📄 Full report: Europe’s Selective Blindness on Gas
EU legislation effectively treats “non‑Russian” gas as diversified.
But importing a majority of gas from any single country—ally or not—creates risks:
• price volatility
• higher costs
• geopolitical pressure
That’s not real energy security.
Between 2019 and 2025, EU gas imports from Russia fell by more than 80%.
At the same time, US LNG imports to Europe increased nearly six‑fold.
When Norway is treated as part of Europe’s energy system, over 59% of Europe’s LNG now comes from the US.
Europe says it has diversified away from Russian gas.
But the data tells a different story.
A new analysis @piria.bsky.social Raffaele Piria, Hannah Lentschig, Louise van Schaik and I just published shows the EU has largely swapped one dependency for another—from Russia to the US.
🧵⬇️
USAs nasjonale sikkerhetsstrategi for 2025 fremstiller eksplisitt energieksport som et middel til å utøve makt.
www.aftenposten.no/meninger/deb...
In the current political landscape, especially under US 'energy dominance', Energy is no longer just a commodity.
It’s a geopolitical tool.
Recent debates linking LNG supply to EU climate and trade policies show how dependence on a dominant supplier turns into leverage—and lock‑in.
