Overall, this reinforces the point that Australian debates about AUKUS are not about submarines at all – they are in reality about the alliance and attitudes towards the US. We would be much better off being honest about that. 8/
How do we weigh the possible advantage of an additional hull in the 2050s, as against the likelihood of greater commonality. The degree of which we don’t know…. My crystal ball is not that good. 7/
There is also the question of the value of having a 3rd“orphan” submarine in the last decade or so of its life. Australia would notionally be operating 1 Virginia through the 2050s & 2060s which is far from ideal. 6/
Also, as @alxluck.bsky.social has pointed out there is the question of the future of SSN(X). If, as appears likely, this program is kicked into the long grass, then the potential for major upgrades on later Blocks is high. 5/
And here we get into trouble, because the simple answer is that we do not know. Even if that information is known in NAVSEA/ASA, we are not party to it, nor are we ever going to be. 4/
However, as others have focused upon there are advantages to having 3 subs from the same block in terms of commonality of maintenance, sustainment and training. The extent of this advantage depends on the differences between a Block IV and a Block VII. 3/
Are there advantages to having a Block VII – yes. The hull would give you 10-15 years more capability, which could be extremely valuable, especially if SSN AUKUS is delayed. It would also contain any upgrades on sub-systems providing you with a truly cutting-edge platform. 2/
The whole Block IV vs Block VII discussion is highlighting the utter inability to have any reasonably informed debate about AUKUS. Despite the categorical claims made by advocates & detractors the reality is that we don’t know if this a positive or negative 1/
Of all the handwriting I’ve ever had to try and decipher, John Buchan’s is undeniably the worst!
A quiet revolution has happened in maritime strategy and we are only just beginning to realise.
Some thoughts from me on how sea control has changed and what it means.
warontherocks.com/a-sea-contro...
Sea control has changed. In recent years, there has been a quiet revolution in maritime strategy that has seen navies increasingly expected to exert
