Politics Lecturer Cardiff University & Fellow Edinburgh University.
Political Psychology 🧠 & Public Opinion.
https://jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/
Jac Larner
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Attitudes to language also matter, seemingly making switching easier for some. Lab -> Plaid switchers much happier for family to speak Welsh than those who stuck with Lab
One I keep coming back to: Reform voters think Wales's problems have simple solutions (median score: ~2/10). Labour and Plaid voters think they're pretty complex (median: ~6/10). Does this mean Plaid support will be a little more resilient to incumbency?
The headline is simple & well-established now: Welsh voters consolidated behind the dominant party of the bloc they were already in. About 40% of 2021 Labour voters went to Plaid. 56% of 2021 Tory voters went to Reform.
Fascinating stuff. Only thing I'd add is that ability of list to compensate for disproportionality in const depends on limited split ticket voting. Prelim SES data suggest *split tickets at an all time high* this election, thus further weakening Lab and Con chances esp
Quebec proposed a model of ...
Jac Larner
Jac Larner
Jac Larner
Labour down 30 points in two constituencies declared so far
@itvcymruwales.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk MRP looking pretty good at the moment across board on vote shares
Great work from James on how Wales’ new electoral system performed
(Even if he has cut off Monmouthshire….)
Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵
jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
Ymunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election.
Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇
www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...
We are pleased to share that the report from our 2026 Local Elections event is now available
The report brings together key insights and discussion points from the event, focusing on the evolving dynamics of local elections and their broader implications
See the report here: poal.co.uk/events/
Ailsa Henderson
Jac Larner
Plaid voters aren't distinctive because they feel strongly Welsh — Reform voters often do too. What separates them is the absence of Britishness. Plaid's coalition is defined less by Welsh pride than by a declining attachment to Britain.
Etholiad y Senedd 2026: Beth ddigwyddodd, a Pham? - Dadansoddiad Ôl-Etholiad gan yr Athro Richard Wyn Jones a Dr Jac Larner
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru
Jac Larner
Public Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL)
On 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment:
Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system
Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system
Same day, same political context, different outcomes.
Which version of PR would be better for Westminster?
🧵
