Host–vector microbiome similarity predicts immune-mediated disturbance and vector competence
Vector-borne disease transmission is highly heterogeneous, yet existing models emphasize climate, host density, and pathogen load. We propose that host–vector microbiome similarity represents a previously unrecognized ecological axis in transmission biology. During blood feeding, vectors ingest host-derived immune effectors shaped by the host microbiota. When immune targeting depends on shared microbial features, microbiome similarity predicts the magnitude of immune-mediated disturbance within the vector gut, altering colonization resistance and influencing pathogen establishment. These effects are context-dependent and may enhance or suppress transmission. This framework generates testable predictions linking microbiome similarity, immune-mediated disturbance, and vector competence across systems. Incorporating microbiome similarity into transmission models may help explain heterogeneity and improve ecological understanding and intervention strategies.
