macro economics, charts, books, short interviews, Alumni University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
https://acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/
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A bold move, raising rates into an oil shock and a contracting economy. #Trichet would be proud.
(my two cents) Bond markets often benefit from productive public #debt b/c it raises income, profits, employment, and ultimately private-sector saving. The real constraint on public investment is not bond market approval but the availability of labor, technology, materials, and productive capacity.
(Holy shit! Excuse my French)
#ECB and the national CBs are forecasting 3x interest rate hikes by 2027. The futures markets have been pricing this in for some time now, chart @fuwnews.bsky.social chart @keinewunder.de
www.fuw.ch/ezb-zinsents...
(note to self)
It was not #inflation of the early 1920s (1923) that brought you know who to power, but #deflation of the 1930s (1932).
Reich Chancellor Brüning had #wages and state salaries cut by 20%.
(pivotal)
Hyperinflation: 1921-1924 vs. Deflation: 1930-1932, chart @bloomberg.com
(Fighting yesterday's inflation — with tomorrow's recession)
#ECB will need to raise borrowing costs again, #IMF said just hours after officials in Frankfurt delivered a 0.25% rate hike, chart @bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
#ElonMusk becomes first #trillionaire after #SpaceX IPO –
there is a legitimate political-economy concern.
If:
• growth remains weak,
• investment falls,
• unemployment rises,
• real incomes stagnate,
... then public dissatisfaction can indeed increase support for radical parties. There is substantial historical evidence across Europe that prolonged economic stagnation tends to benefit anti-establishment movements.
#Germany #inflation CPI in May 2026: +2.6%Y, -0.2%M, chart @destatis www.destatis.de/EN/Press/202...
The biggest omission is that @martinsandbu.ft.com never fully asks why Govts should be constrained by bond market sentiment in the first place. His argument is: "Bond markets can learn to love public debt." -
chart @financialtimes.com op-ed www.ft.com/content/3d1a...
