One way to look at this is to compare the probabilities: 1) what’s the probability that Altuve tags and scores vs. 2) what’s the probability that the next batter gets a hit?
I estimate that the odds of 1 are about 15%. Most batters are batting above .150, so 2 is probably the higher EV play.
Andrew Dessler
Jose Altuve scores the go-ahead run in the tenth on a sac fly to the second baseman
