Resolution has applied my model to data up to 2025. As the chart shows, we can be less confident as time goes on. But firm-level evidence from Bloom et al shows a 6% loss. I think it's time to retire the OBR's 4%, which was a simple average of pre-Brexit forecasts.
John Springford
The economic damage caused by Brexit may be almost double the 4% impact assumed by the OBR, the Resolution Foundation has revealed.
