I wrote a book explaining this (based on a bunch of sociologists, neuroscientists, and political scientists). And yes, the answer is the campaign consultants have absolutely no clue what drives voter behavior.
one thing i genuinely wish both Labour and Dems would do is stop over-relying on electoral gurus like Morgan McSweeney and actually hire political scientists and sociologists to investigate "okay, how does class formation happen now, and how does it shape political votes? how do we win?"
Sean Satori
Sharon
the issue is (as Skocpol pointed out in Rust Belt Union Blues) is that socialization has gone from union halls to basically Fox News, so economic populist/social con voters are socialized more towards the GOP than the Dems
Sharon
For as much attention as libertarians get in popular media, the opposite view is far more common and basically never spoken to. The parties trade those voters back and forth based on whether the economically liberal or socially conservative part of their brains are being tickled by events.
