Senior Fellow at @brookings.edu. Previously Chief Economist at IIF and Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs.
Robin Brooks
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robinjbrooks.substack.com/publish/post...
A big reason oil didn't go to $200 - and why it won't - is that US crude exports have boomed. Chart shows the massive rise in crude exports in April, which is NOT explained by the SPR release. US supply is a genuine force holding down global oil prices...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-surge-...
China's exports to Zimbabwe are up 130% in the first four months of 2026 versus 2024. This is how China survived the US tariff shock. It unloaded all the stuff it couldn't sell to the US on small, often impoverished countries who can't afford this stuff...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-us-tar...
An important shift is happening on oil prices. They're down without peace headlines. What's changing is that markets now have a growing appreciation of how robust global oil supply chains are. Lots of oil got rerouted, helping to fill SoH gaps in Asia...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-can-c...
I'm a big believer that US inflation is well-behaved and that the coming wave of down-sizing in white-collar employment, which will be huge, is - if anything - deflationary. Today's CPI reading goes in that direction. There is no sign of US overheating...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-us-infl...
What the oil bulls got wrong - and keep getting wrong - is failing to ask what kind of oil price rise is needed to balance markets. Prices are up 60% from pre-war after all. That caused lots of diversion of oil flows and demand destruction. It's enough...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-latest...
Markets are a series of natural experiments. People learn and update views on how stuff trades. The fact that oil does nothing on Iran shooting down a US helicopter and the US bombing Iran should give oil bulls some serious pause. The oil bulls are wrong...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-can-c...
The Yen has now weakened decisively above $/JPY 160. Definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and hoping for a different result. Every time Japan intervenes, it's a sign of denial and - frankly - insanity. This can't stabilize the Yen...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-shoul...
Oil bulls make it sound like the SPR is almost out of oil. Two key facts: (i) this emergency release is so far MUCH smaller than in 2022 after Russia's Ukraine invasion; (ii) the SPR is near the lows of 2022, so this is nothing we haven't seen before...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-surge-...
There's really no sign - whatsoever - that US inflation is overheating. That has implications for the Dollar. Just imagine what'll happen to inflation when the war ends and oil prices fall. I think markets are wrong to price hikes for the Fed. Very wrong...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/inflation-...
