Senior Research Analyst @focaldata.bsky.social
https://jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
James Breckwoldt
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A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical
Open wide for some soccer!
At @focaldata.bsky.social we ran a poll of 1,500 people across the three host nations to find out what they make of one another, how excited they are about the World Cup, what they want to get out of hosting it, and what they think about its controversies
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Americans are split on what they want from the World Cup, with no single goal commanding the room.
Canadians and Mexicans are clearer, and top of both their lists is boosting the national economy
Mexicans also want to show off their culture to the world
Then there is the small matter of whether people actually like the sport.
In Mexico, 70% say they regularly watch or play.
In the USA and Canada, it is closer to one in five (22% and 24%), trailing the NFL, basketball and ice hockey. They are, for the most part, not soccer countries.
Americans rate the current state of relations with Canada positively and see those with Mexico as roughly neutral.
However, Canadians are very gloomy about the state of relations with the USA, and Mexicans lean negative on the same question too.
Not the ideal backdrop for the tournament
For Americans, the biggest fear is Trump overshadowing the tournament or immigration enforcement controversies
Canadians and Mexicans are more focused on prices and costs, particularly that tickets, travel and hotels will simply be too expensive for ordinary fans.
When I put "rejoin the EU" in a vote-choice conjoint, people who disagreed were more motivated to vote against than people who agreed were to vote for.
And those who said "neither agree/disagree" voted against hypothetical candidates who supported rejoin
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Mexicans are most relaxed about Iran, though Americans and Canadians still lean in favour
Mexicans are keenest on Mamdani-style discounts for local residents
Canadians are most insistent FIFA foots bill for hosting and most sceptical tournament is worth it if costs overrun
James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt
When asked how excited they are about the World Cup, soccer fans are excited, scoring around 8/10 on average in all three.
Problem for US and Canada is there are not many of them. Among vast majority here who do not follow soccer, excitement drops sharply to 3.7 in US and 2.6 in Canada
As we approach 10 years since the EU referendum, a new YouGov study finds most Britons would support a closer relationship with the EU, including rejoining
Closer relationship outside EU: 59% support
Rejoin EU: 55%
Current relationship: 29%
Looser relationship: 21%
yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
The 2024 UK General Election had a bigger effect on national identity in Britain than Euro 2024
Sound surprising? Well, we found this as part of a paper accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social
With the World Cup ⚽️ starting tomorrow, this is the perfect time to read more blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
James Breckwoldt
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
