Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Previously, director of The Hamilton Project at Brookings and before that chief economist of CBO.
Wendy Edelberg
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I’ve pondered how (not if) Trump will impose his will on the Fed if Warsh doesn’t want to or can’t cut rates. Maybe part of Trump’s plan is to keep the reno investigation & broaden beyond Powell just to keep DoJ folks hanging around with the threat of criminal charges against someone at the Fed?
I think the most important number from the BEA this morning was goods inflation. Excluding gasoline, goods prices rose 0.7% from January to February. That is a very large price increase for a category that in normal times is often negative. Tariffs are nowhere near done pushing up prices.
Emp growth is much stronger in payroll survey than household survey. Emp since Jan has *fallen* in HH survey. Sure, surveys can move apart, like when HH survey didn't reflect immigration surge. But, the sharp increase in gap is hard to understand. Since 1994, only 4 yrs had bigger widening Jan-May.
BLS incorporated new population composition resulting in lower LFPR & EPOP. Employment gains averaged 5k a month over last 3 months even as UR remained low & stable, remarkably consistent with breakevens from co-authors & me. tinyurl.com/3mzddwhx
PSA: DON'T USE CPS FOR FOREIGN & NATIVE BORN LEVELS.
