This is because they are existential for the regime, which cannot be dislodged through air power, while the ability to inflict economic pain on the US, its allies and the world more generally is Iran's only "superpower" in this conflict. It will not give this up lightly.
3/8
The problem is that the first condition, in particular, is hard to meet. Allowing Iran a nuclear weapon or an unimpedable short-run path towards it would of course do that. However that is unacceptable not just to the US but to all other actors.
4/8
The only thing wrong with the article is that the infographic at the start indicates that the train from Frankfurt to Brussels midi is on time. 🙄
It is far from obvious what form such guarantees could take. Meanwhile, as the US midterms approach and the economic damage is increasingly felt around the world, Iran perceives its leverage steadily increasing. The suffering of ordinary Iranians is not a consideration.
6/8
For Europe the upshot is that the economic dislocation must be expected to continue. The ECB is set on raising interest rates next week. This will only make it harder to tackle the EUs already serious challenges.
A big centrally funded boost to green transition wd be the best solution, but...
8/8
Continued exchanges of fire between the US and Iran. Hormuz remains blocked, with all its negative consequences. Meanwhile Trump repeats that a deal is imminent and the Strait will be unblocked: the Iranians just need time to face up to the fact they have no choice.
Yet the reality is..
Short🧵
1/8
Under such circumstances it is hard to see how the conflict can end soon. Trump is under greater pressure to do so quickly, but he cannot offer the mullahs today something they prefer over holding out for better terms tomorrow.
An international initiative might help, but who will lead it? China?
7/8
This raises the obvious question: what security guarantees are both sufficiently credible to Iran's leaders and acceptable to the US. The latter essentially means that they are such that they do not allow Iran to coerce countries in the region.
5/8
The Iranian regime wants 2 things. Effective assurance that it will not be attacked in future and an end to the sanctions/blockade strangling its economy. Restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and missile exchanges will not lastingly end until these conditions are substantively met.
2/8
The question I ask myself twice a week.
Besides the railway specifics, the article illustrates how ordoliberalism has hobbled Germany. Sensible public investment crowds in private investment, rather than crowding it out. Private inv't is much more sensitive to demand than to interest-rates.
#Keynes