SPC upgraded to a Moderate Risk in northern IL & northern IN, while this moisture-loaded system also poses a flash flood threat, highlighted in WPC's Slight Risk. It is bound to be an active & potentially dangerous day in the Midwest. Have a reliable means for receiving warnings!
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Probably some of the best sundogs I have ever seen.
...with at least 600ft in elevation to work with. DC/Baltimore metro areas & closer to the coast will rely heavily on rates during the day & where bands of the developing coastal low occur. That is what is most unclear in these areas. Jackpot likely to be southern/coastal NJ...
...Long Island & into southern New England. Even if totals in lesser amounts come to fruition, strong winds producing whiteout conditions will still cause widespread disruptions. A tough forecast for many. Greatest uncertainty? West of I-95 from northern VA to south-central PA.
WPC has initiates Key Messages for the impending heat wave over the eastern half of the U.S..
A dynamic setup on Wednesday with low pressure that is among the lowest observed in the 1979-2021 ERA5 database will overlap with a remarkably strong jet stream aloft, robust low-level jet, & powerful IVT to produce a combination of severe & hydro impacts in the Midwest.
...Northeast MD on north & east. Toughest areas are northern VA, northern MD, & southern PA where they are caught in between the transitioning coastal, & maybe half of the available QPF falls during the day Sunday. That favors elevated areas in these locations. ridge lines...
