Research Fellow at @EUI | Political Scientist | public opinion, attitudes, political socialization, migration, quantitative methods | Author ‘Education and Tolerance’
www.lenkadrazanova.com
Lenka Dražanová
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We find no equivalent heterogeneity for national pride. This isn't a generalised retreat into collective identity under threat. It's specifically about the EU as shelter.
Implication: external threat can transform the EU from a perceived cultural threat into a necessary geopolitical shelter even for those who most fiercely resisted it. The converts, not the choir, drove the rally.
Lenka Dražanová
Lenka Dražanová
We analyze survey data from 16 EU countries collected 5 weeks after the invasion. Using a causal forest algorithm, we find that exclusive nationalists (those who identify solely with their nation, not Europe) show the strongest association between threat perception and European pride.
It's not just symbolic. The same group shifts toward supporting a common European army. The defenders of national sovereignty moved furthest toward defense integration under threat! The effect is largest in CEE where the threat is most proximate and memories of Soviet domination run deepest.
