Data Scientist and Postdoc at @pophel.bsky.social. PhD in Demography and Sociology at UPenn, Statistics MA at Wharton. My research focuses on mortality determinants and trends. Bayesian statistics, forecasting, statistical modeling.
Eugenio Paglino
This is different from previous estimates relying on excess mortality estimation (including from our team) because the estimand in this paper was the number of misclassified COVID-19 deaths rather than "pandemic-related deaths" which is what excess mortality models estimate.
Which causes drove the reversal of the urban penalty? For females, declines in respiratory diseases and neoplasms accounted for 66%, with external deaths contributing 21%. For males, external deaths alone contributed ~50%, with neoplasms and respiratory diseases jointly contributing 28%.
Behind the national trends, we also show large regional differences. For example, the urban penalty was always largest and persisted even in 2023 in the North, but was almost absent in the Southeast since 2010 for males and from before 2006 for females.
This is remarkable because the two approaches rely on very different identifying assumptions, providing sort of a "doubly robust" estimation approach. We hope the methods in this paper could be applied to improve cause-of-death classification for other misreported causes of death.
Interestingly, we did not find a large contribution of circulatory and metabolic diseases, even though they account for more than 1/3 of all deaths. While urban mortality declines for these causes were faster in middle and older adulthood, rural declines were more rapid in young adulthood.
Working on this paper reminded me of previous work on the U.S., where we also documented urban mortality penalties in 1999 turning into large urban advantages by 2019. It is interesting to see this process unfolding similarly in two very different contexts.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Our estimate of total (official + misclassified) COVID-19 deaths matches alternative estimates we produced a while back using excess mortality modeling and looking at temporal correlation between COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths due to other causes of death.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
🚨New study led by @josehcms.bsky.social in the Journal of Urban Health. We document how an urban longevity penalty ⏬ turned into an urban advantage ⏫ between 2006 and 2023 in Brazil.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
@marilianep.bsky.social
#demography #brazil #cities #longevity
