Infectious disease epidemiologist and modeller postdoc based at Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, honourary LSHTM | PhD LSHTM | MSc Imperial College London | Twitter: @BQuilty
Billy Quilty
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Some past published examples of incubation periods (IP) of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) cases.
Note that the extremes of 6+ weeks (42+ days) are the exception, not the rule.
So not definitive (but 95% CrI is 53-91%, so more than pure chance). Cases we see from now on are more likely to be due to transmission beyond that from index case. Given serial interval It'll be a while before we can say anything about transmission happening off the ship (tho depending on context)
It would be beneficial if prominent public health voices could avoid solely framing outbreak risks through the lens of whether they should be something for people in high-income countries to "worry about" or not.
A key question now is whether this is part of the initial cluster likely spawned by the index case, or potentially a third generation case. Based on what's known about the incubation period/serial interval, I estimate that there is a 74% chance that this a third gen case: github.com/bquilty25/ho...
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This Perspective by Joël Mossong discusses findings from the Reconnect study, highlighting the importance of understanding social contacts & how they have evolved for infectious disease modeling, & the need to consider ethnic & socioeconomic backgrounds🧪 #MedSky #COVID-19
plos.io/42CQPLI
How have social contact patterns changed since the #COVID-19 pandemic? In this cross-sectional survey, Lucy Goodfellow & colleagues collect information on social contacts of over 13,000 people in the UK post-pandemic, including social mixing by ethnic & socioeconomic groups🧪 #MedSky
plos.io/4nmJyck
Ian M. Mackay, PhD (he/him) 🦠🤧🧬📑🦟🧀
Billy Quilty
Billy Quilty
Billy Quilty
When there's a new outbreak, yes there's always the possibility of a major pandemic and that puts some weight on the need for a fast, cooperative and effective public health response but really the immediate, foreseeable consequences of the outbreak should be the focus and are reason enough to act.
