Antarctic climate scientist, IPCC author, FRSNZ, musician, & artist. #julialang. Vegan, yoga, runner.
Author of FEEDBACK, a book about complexity and connection - published by Rowman & Littlefield.
🌏 www.nicholasgolledge.github.io
Nick Golledge
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These melt projections have important ramifications for glaciological processes, including ice shelf stability, as well as the ecosystem viability, expansion, and the potential spread of invasive species.
The melt totals we predict are similar to those from the low resolution CMIP6 GCMs used for IPCC reports, but we capture the spatial pattern of melt in a much more physically robust way.
In this paper we show that surface melt will increase 10x by 2100 under an SSP3-7. 0 emissions scenario, and the area of new melt will expand by ~10%.
By calculating the rate of latitudinal migration of melt, we show that only under a highly mitigated SSP1-2.6 scenario will the rate of future Antarctic surface melt expansion stabilize at present levels.
The calculations come from a 1km-downscaled temperature index model whose parameters are trained on, and validated against, 40 years of observational data.
Just out in @natgeosci.nature.com we use ice sheet modeling to identify & characterize behavioral regimes, & the nature of ice sheet regime shifts. We do this using the Shannon entropy signature of mass loss, and find evidence of bistability under high, but not low, entropy regimes.
rdcu.be/fmIe1
Finally published in its typeset form, our paper on present & future surface melt across Antarctica is now available (open access) here:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🥳 INSTANT Fellowship 2026 recipients:
Yingpu Xiahou: Ice Shelf–Ocean Boundary Layers
Eleonora Santucci: Pliocene ocean temp. @Totten
Peter Matzerath: Deep-water oxygenation and export
Ann Kristin Klose: WAIS mass imbalance
Peter Siew: AI forecast AIS surface melt model
@scar-antarctic.bsky.social
Check out our exciting new study about the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in its infancy!
🔗 doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
📸 Knahl and Scholz
Speaking against the Government’s bill to abolish the Ministry for the Environment when they are already falling short of their climate targets.
Nick Golledge
Nick Golledge
Nick Golledge
Nick Golledge
Nick Golledge
Assessing the impact of rising air temperatures on the Antarctic Ice Sheet is hampered by the coarse resolution of climate models. Here, the authors use an observationally constrained statistical meth...
