A huge thanks to my supervisors @donvanraven.bsky.social & Henk Kiers for their guidance and support!
For a deeper dive into statistical interactions & model misspecification, check out our related preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Excited to share that my first PhD paper got published! We explored the effects of correctly vs. failing to model true interactions in data. Can model misspecification lead to reversed conclusions? Which model generalizes better to a larger sample?
Read the article here: doi.org/10.3758/s134...
After 5 years of data collection, our WARN-D machine learning competition to forecast depression onset is now LIVE! We hope many of you will participate—we have incredibly rich data.
If you share a single thing of my lab this year, please make it this competition.
eiko-fried.com/warn-d-machi...
A new paper for my PhD has been published! In psychology, the default for studying the ubiquitous explanation ‘it-depends’ is the use of an interaction/moderator. This default creates tension between theory and model, yielding false positives and negatives. doi.org/10.1007/s421...
Call for Submissions for the Theory Methods Conference 2026, September 30-October 2! theorymethodssociety.org/conference.h...
We invite you to:
1) Submit your proposal: edu.nl/mj9x6
2) Invite your colleagues/lab/(PhD) students, and encourage them to submit
3) Share this post
We built the openESM database:
▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place
▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software
▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python
Find out more:
🌐 openesmdata.org
📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Aljoscha Rimpler
eiko-fried.com
If you share one single thing of our team in 2026—on social media or per email with your colleagues—please let it be this machine learning competition. It was half a decade of work to get here, especi...
Conditional effects, or interaction effects, do not imply multiplicative effects. However, product terms are the default method for modeling such conditional effects in psychological research. As a result, theoretically plausible conditional effects may go undetected when the functional form is misspecified. Our study had two objectives: (1) evaluate the extent to which non-linear phenomena can be identified as spurious multiplicative (i.e., standard) interaction terms in linear models, (2) assess how well linear models capture stepwise conditional effects. In Study 1, we examined spurious interactions from non-linear main effects. We found that traditional interaction terms were associated with increased Type-I error rates and small effect sizes. Importantly, this was also the case when the predictors were uncorrelated, indicating a mechanism beyond collinearity. Additionally, we found that, if captured, the spurious interaction effects did reduce prediction error on the population level. In Study 2, we simulated genuine conditional effects, following a stepwise pattern. When effects were monotonic, product terms performed adequately, however if the conditional effect is non-monotonic a traditional interaction term in a linear model does not sufficiently capture such an effect. We conclude that relying solely on traditional interaction terms in linear models can be misleading and the failure to replicate interaction effects may partly reflect a specification crisis: Researchers default to one functional form (multiplication) while the underlying theory may dictate a different form, creating a systematic mismatch between theory and model. To validly investigate conditional effects, researchers should specify and justify the expected functional form a priori.
New preprint w/ the WARN-D team (incl. @eikofried.bsky.social @rayyantutunji.bsky.social, @aljoscharimpler.bsky.social & others): We explain our exploration of EMA items in data of ~600 individuals. We investigate distributions/changes over time/context/interindividual differences & more
Eiko Fried
Aljoscha Rimpler
Caspar van Lissa 🟥
Björn Siepe
Björn Siepe
Using (multilevel) VAR models? Ever checked how well they actually fit your data? @jmbh.bsky.social & I created VARcheck, an R package for visual model checking for VAR models.
Blogpost with workflow: bsiepe.github.io/blog/2026-05...
📝Paper: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
💻Docs: bsiepe.github.io/VARcheck/
Interaction effects are very common in the psychological literature. However, interaction effects are typically very small and often fail to replicate. In this study, we conducted a simulation compari...