Weekly renewable simulation of Australia's NEM
Keen on renewables, efficiency, EVs, bikes, the outdoors, running & cycling
Dave Osmond
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Global CO2 emissions have plateaued since 2013, leading to a slower growth in atmospheric CO2 than would have otherwise been the case. In a new analysis at The Climate Brink, I've taken look at what would have happened if emissions had continued to grow: www.theclimatebrink....
Two things are going to happen in Australia's main grid in the next few years
- Renewables are going to overtake coal
- Battery discharge is going to overtake gas
🥰
The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)
just saw a video of a guy running after a bus he missed
and then another guy passing by in a cargo bike told him to hop in the front basket
and the they passed the bus and the cyclist dropped the dude at the next stop 😭😭😭
www.instagram.com/reel/DXzdVAX...
Saw my dude here get off the EB Cermak bus and then start straight up HUSTLING to catch the NB Halsted bus. Had to offer up the assist.Always fun when someone is up for a little adventure. @riesemuller #CargoBike #Adventure
The co-presidents of COP 31 have announced a target of 35% electrification as a percentage of Final Energy. Electrification is absolutely the right target, but percentage of Final Energy is the wrong metric. What we really need is data on Useful Energy! mliebreich.substack.com/p/lets-targe...
The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 99.4% RE
Last 250 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)
Here is the simulation from weeks 247 to 250. It was 94.3% renewable (3/5)
Last week had:
- average demand (101% of long-term average)
- well above average wind (125%)
- extreme below average solar (66%) (2/5)
Dave Osmond
Michael Liebreich
Dave Osmond
Dave Osmond
Dave Osmond
Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.
The co-presidents of COP 31 have announced a target of 35% electrification as a percentage of Final Energy. Electrification is the right target, but percentage of Final Energy is the wrong metric.
