Switzerland, deconvolutions until mid of May:
BA.3.2* staying gone, XFG* staying mostly dominant, at very low absolute viral load.
Sources:
cov-spectrum.org
wise.ethz.ch
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Dominik Steiger
Switzerland, deconvolutions until end of April:
At historically low viral absolute viral load, BA.3.2* (turquoise) is mostly gone.
XFG* (brown) and NB.1.8.1* (green) cocirculate, as before.
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Dominik Steiger
Switzerland, deconvolutions until April 18:
Remarkably, the BA.3.2* (turquoise) wave seems to be through.
Note that uncertainty at the currently very low absolute viral loads can be very large, hence the observed swings in the data.
Trend is clear, notwithstanding this.
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Dominik Steiger
Switzerland, deconvolutions until April 6:
Interestingly, BA.3.2* relative loads have not further increased.
Note that uncertainty at the currently very low abs. viral loads can be very large, hence the observed swings in the data. This in itself is not a new phenomenon.
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Dominik Steiger
Switzerland, deconvolutions until March 20:
BA.3.2* (turquoise curve) is dominant in a majority of assessed plants, at low absolute incidences.
Incidence estimate: ~100 from wastewater, ~250 from sentinel detections (7d incidence /100k).
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Dominik Steiger
Switzerland, deconvolutions for BA.3.2* until Feb 6th (wk 6; abs. viral load data until Feb 22th):
BA.3.2* fraction grew to about 40%, during lowering and very low absolute prevalence.
In total, about 1% of the population have been infected with BA.3.2*, until Feb 6th.
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Dominik Steiger
Switzerland, deconvolutions for BA.3.2* until Jan 24th:
Zurich: 11% [9-15%]
Lugano: 22% [19-25%]
Absolute viral load data until Feb 8th.
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Dominik Steiger
Deconvolution for BA.3.2* is finally publicly available for Swiss wastewater (cyan curve). Seq data until Jan 11, viral load data until Jan 25.
It started growing beginning of December and run into trouble.
Also noticeable: NB.1.8.1* subvariant fraction seems to rise.
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Dominik Steiger
Wastewater seq data, Switzerland, until November 2, prevalence data until November 16.
XFG* stably at 80-90%, NB.1.8.1* stably at 10-20%, since July or August.
I find it surprising that both clades stably coexist, without one outcompeting the other.
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Dominik Steiger
Wastewater seq data, Switzerland, until October 3, prevalence data until October 19.
XFG* variants almost completely dominant since many weeks, now comprising two thirds of infections in this wave.
NB.1.8.1* variants staying present, at about 10%.
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Dominik Steiger
Wastewater seq data until September 9, prevalence data until September 28.
XFG* is almost completely dominant since end of July, in Switzerland. It comprises about half of infections since the last local minimum.
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Dominik Steiger
Wastewater seq data until August 9, prevalence data until August 31.
XFG* (beige) is almost completely dominant since end of July, in Switzerland.
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Dominik Steiger
Wastewater sequencing data until July 11/12, prevalence data until August 13.
XFG* (beige) strongly dominant, NB.1.8.1* (light green) less competitive.
In sum, the concomitant rise of the two variants did not do much in terms of prevalences.
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Dominik Steiger
Wastewater seq data until June 28, prevalence data until July 13.
XFG* (beige) dominant, NB.1.8.1* (light green) less competitive. Some LP.8* (dark green) left.
In sum, the concomitant rise of the two variants ("Stratus" and "Nimbus") did not do much in terms of prevalences.
Dominik Steiger
Data until 15.6.
XFG* is >=50% in 4 of 6 plants. It looks slightly more competitive than the much-hyped NB.1.8.1*. Both did not seem capable to drive a large wave. Absolute growth of viral load and test positivities started beginning of May. (Note: trailing 7d medians).
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Dominik Steiger
Next-gen sequencing analysis of Swiss wastewater (cov-spectrum.org/stories/wast...) now additionally deconvolves XFG* and NB.1.8.1*.
Seq data until May 30. Mind the large CIs at low absolute viral load.
XFG* constitutes the largest fraction in 5 of 6 plants.
1/4
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Dominik Steiger
Next-gen sequencing analysis of Swiss wastewater (cov-spectrum.org/stories/wast...) now additionally deconvolves LP.8*.
Seq data until February 22. Mind the very large CIs at low prevalence.
LP.8* is seen at >10% in ZH, TI, GE.
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Dominik Steiger
Next-gen sequencing analysis of Swiss wastewater (cov-spectrum.org/stories/wast...) now additionally deconvolves XEC*.
Seq data until September 22, prevalences until October 6.
XEC* is seen at around 20%.
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Dominik Steiger
The Swiss variant deconvolutions (cov-spectrum.org/stories/wast...) now additionally deconvolve KP.3*. Data until June 15.
The Zurich result is very nice:
Absolute growth is mostly due to the fractions being deconvolved as KP.2* and (since end of May) KP.3*.
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Dominik Steiger
The Swiss variant deconvolutions (cov-spectrum.org/stories/wast...) now discriminate between JN.1* and KP.2*. Data until May 18th.
The Zurich result is quite nice:
Absolute JN.1* (w/o KP.2*) loads did practically not grow. All growth is due to the fraction being discriminated as KP.2*
