7/ Our results provide a solution to a recent puzzle about whether and when lock-in on an inferior option is possible and connect a behavioral phenomenon to macro-level popularity dynamics. They also highlight the importance of small winning margins.
This 1990 speech by Carl Sagan is timely times two:
#war #climate
4/ Main finding: Small majorities matter!
People are much more likely to choose A if it is even slightly more popular than B.
We call this the *marginal majority effect*
3/ We develop a mathematical theory that describes popularity dynamics between two competing alternatives when people's choices are influenced by the previous choices of others.
We then validate it using data from recent behavioral experiments.
2/ We all know social influence matters.
People are more likely to choose something if others chose it first: music, platforms, political opinions, etc.
But here’s the puzzle:
Sometimes bad options can lock in an early popularity advantage, while in other cases better options take over.
Why?
5/ Importantly, lock-in becomes possible when the size of the marginal majority effect exceeds the quality difference of the two alternatives (i.e., difference in choice probability without social influence).
6/ This theoretical prediction is corroborated in a reanalysis of data from multiple-world experiments in three domains (political preferences, matters of fact, matters of taste). In the picture, when the MME exceeds quality difference (d), lock-in is observed (blue), but rarely otherwise (red).
1/ Why do inferior but popular things remain popular?
Excited to share our new paper with @pantelispa.bsky.social, @glemens.bsky.social & @arnoutvanderijt.bsky.social
"The marginal majority effect: When social influence produces lock-in"
www.science.org/doi/epdf/10....
Four travel grants available for PhD students and postdocs to present their posters at the 13th Toulouse Economics and Biology Workshop! Apply by Feb 27th.
www.iast.fr/conferences/...
How does social influence shape collective outcomes? When does it lead to lock-in on inferior options?
In our 🚨 new preprint 📝 osf.io/preprints/so... we make three contributions
w/ @alexgelas.bsky.social Alex Jochim @leostnbrk.bsky.social Peter Steiglechner & @pantelispa.bsky.social
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