Those involved in disorder/violence in Northern Ireland in summer 2024 were much less likely to be arrested than in England
Northern Ireland in 2024
[49 arrests; > 600 people involved in disorder]
So up to 1 in 12
England in 2024
[1876 arrests of 4000-5000 people involved in disorder]
About 1 in 3
It's hard to have strong intuitions given that the size is so big, but 4x oversubscribed doesn't actually feel all that much
My most radical belief is exchanges data should be free
fwiw, Exeter seems to have either 12 or 13 people at their protest (depending on whether you counter baby in a pram who doesn't really seem to be taking any active part). There is a roughly equally sized group of street drinkers having an argument, so far the two have not joined up.
in which I get my underclothes in a frightful twist over the concept of "decision finality"
backofmind.substack.com/p/the-concep...