V unusual for a govt party candidate to win a by-election when vacancy was caused by departure of an opposition TD, as Seán Kyne (FG) has done in Galway W today. Prior to today, previous was Oct 2011 (Patrick Nulty in Dublin W), & before that June 1976 (Brendan Halligan in Dublin SW), both Labour.
It was always difficult to see how Daniel Ennis of Social Democrats could possibly NOT win the Dublin Central by-election. If a Condorcet winner makes it through to the final count, ie is one of the top two at the final stage, then by definition he/she cannot be beaten.
How do Irish parties line up on left–right spectrum? Attached is from Chapter 5 (by Gail McElroy & Stefan Müller) in the book How Ireland Voted 2024 (Palgrave). Scores are based on analysis of manifestos at Nov 2024 election, and authors discuss in particular the surprising placement of Green Party.
By-election 22 May in Galway West: not clear that there is a Condorcet winner here, and, even if there is, he or she might not win enough first preferences to remain in the count till final stage. Several plausible contenders to win the seat; could be a long day going through the counts on Sat 23rd.
By-election 22 May in Dublin Central: Daniel Ennis (Social Dems) looks like a Condorcet winner, ie would defeat any other candidate in a head-to-head. So provided that (as expected) he isn’t eliminated before the final stage, he can be expected to take the seat.
Writs for 22 May by-elections finally moved. In 2024, Galway West was exceptionally fragmented, no party or ind won even 19% of vote, effective N parties 8.2. In Dublin Central, only SF (23.3%) exceeded 20% votes. Winning cands will have low % of first prefs, so transfers will determine outcomes.
Of the 137 winners of contested Dáil by-elections, 11 have started with first preference vote below 25%. Only one below 20%: current Ind Ireland TD Michael Fitzmaurice was elected having received 18.7% of first prefs in Roscommon–South Leitrim S 2014. Maybe this record could be challenged on 22 May?
Of the 138 by-election outcomes, the first 50 took place 1923–1949, the next 50 1952–76. Only 38 so far in the 50 years since then, mainly because it's now much rarer for TDs to die in office. 4th Dáil (1923–27) saw 21 seats filled through by-elections, by far the largest number of any Dáil.