This work formed part of my PhD with @drrachellowe.bsky.social and @adamjkucharski.bsky.social at @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social and was part of a great collaboration with the National Environment Agency of Singapore, thanks to all co-authors!
No one best way to measure #infection risk in populations.
Cross-sectional sero: weak temporal signal, CXR, waning as we know. Extra care needed for longitudinal #serology as Ab kinetics and assay noise can mess up estimates by a lot. Cases can be powerful!
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411768121
In Singapore, dengue outbreaks are increasing in frequency and magnitude - climate-informed early warning systems can help to mitigate the impacts of these, but prediction of large outbreaks remains a challenge.
We also used this framework to estimate the impact of releases of Wolbachia-infected mosquitos on dengue transmission, finding that ~28% of dengue cases expected in 2023 were averted following an expansion of the Wolbachia release programme.
A great opportunity to work with an incredible team! You may even get to label some cryotubes (as pictured below)
We show that by incorporating information on changes in circulating dengue serotypes we can enhance the predictive ability of our forecasting model beyond climate data alone.
New study out in Nature Communications! In this paper, we disentangle the impact of climate variation and serotype changes on dengue dynamics in Singapore and present a forecasting framework able to predict outbreaks up to two months ahead 🦟
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Using over 20 years of weekly case, climate and serotype data, we found that risk of dengue was highest during El Niño conditions and in the first few years following a change in the dengue serotype circulating in the population.
1/ 🎉 Thrilled to share our new study: Quantifying the impact of pre-vaccination titre and vaccination history on influenza vaccine immunogenicity 🦠💉 Published in Vaccine! link: authors.elsevier.com/a/1kD7x,60n7... with @adamjkucharski.bsky.social