Helping analysts cut through the noise on Russian security — open-source investigation, verified intelligence, rigorous analysis. Founder of Threatologist. Newsletter: Tracing Patterns.
www.threatologist.com/newsletter
Mark Youngman
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The problem with the speculation is two-fold. On the one hand, the sourcing is always week - usually combining Kremlinology and sources whose credentials can't possibly be checked.
On the other hand, they overlook the fact that, in the short-term, the candidates within the regime are largely interchangeable.
Based on videos of public meetings and their own anonymous sources, they claim that Adam Kadyrov, son of current leader Ramzan, has fallen out of favour as preferred successor. Instead, his brother and earlier favourite is back in the running as heir #1.
This includes profiles of the main actors and the various pieces of analysis that I have produced.
In the meantime, keep the salt handy when dealing with Novaya Gazeta Europe reporting on Chechnya.
Substack has possibly the worst onboarding process I have ever seen.
I blame @jeremymorris.bsky.social for sending me down this rabbit hole!
A Russian military court sentences a man to seven years for “studying the ideology” of the Russian Volunteer Corps and attempting to join the group.
The man was already serving term for terrorism-related offences when he sought to join.
Novaya Gazeta have produced quite a few articles of this sort, nominating Adam, Akhmat, and Apti Alaudinov as potential heirs to the throne.
I've written a lot about the succession process, including in my weekly newsletter. When I launch the Russian Security Research Lab at the end of the month, there will be plenty of material that will allow for a more rigorous analysis of the Chechen elite
www.threatologist.com/rsrl-waiting...
Such cases of “prison extremism” are difficult to substantiate, but provide a convenient way of boosting official statistics.
www.kavkazr.com/a/zhitelya-r...
