Deputy Director of @fraserofallander.org at the University of Strathclyde, formerly at the OBR. Mostly economic and fiscal policy, plus the odd rugby and football post. Views are my own, shares are not endorsements. He/him
João Sousa
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Amazing stuff - and also further evidence of just how bonkers our VAT system is. All of this is deadweight and welfare-reducing in the aggregate - including this fabulously amusing article
My latest @heraldscotland.bsky.social article: why the BoE decided to wait, and why the UK Govt ought to be exploring how to design a targeted scheme rather than a repeat of 2022's blank-cheque approach
www.heraldscotland.com/news/2599742...
This seems like a bad idea, just like we said about the Scottish proposal. Will likely solve nothing, cause shortages if cap very low or lead to artificially supplied (and wasteful) low quality products no one wants. National loaf anyone?
Look at the charts and tell me there's a lot of room for manoeuvre in the public finances.
Even with optimistic spending totals and a strong primary surplus, debt will still be higher than today and barely falling. And that presumes we'll *finally* start to tighten fiscal policy
João Sousa
With war breaking out in Iran and the broader Middle East in the past month, market uncertainty has ratcheted up again. One thing is clear, however:…
Britain, 2335: The budget ceremony begins with the traditional Announcement of the Fuel Duty Rise. Two months later, there will be the traditional Postponement of the Fuel Duty Rise, continuing a ritual begun centuries earlier by Chancellors in the Fossil Fuel era
How is the Iran War affecting inflation expectations and the public finances? And what do the increases in gilt yields affect the context of any UK Government response?
Read our analysis below:
fraserofallander.org/the-iran-war...
João Sousa
João Sousa
Oil and gas prices have fluctuated significantly since 28 February, but what is undeniable is the increase in levels…
www.ft.com/content/8573... UK Treasury pushes supermarkets to cap food prices
Rachel Reeves will scrap plans this week to increase fuel duty by 5p a litre from September amid mounting concerns about the impact of the Iran war on the cost of living
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Retailers furious at government effort aimed at limiting impact of inflation
