My colleague @hannahalothman.bsky.social is in Belfast tonight. This is what she’s seen.
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
on the other hand my last hope for civilisation is that there is one incredibly online Reform dad behind this. Someone whose spent all of his children's life savings on huge amounts of advertising to make this point, whatever that is
Always be bloc-ing
Was a pleasure to chat to @pimlicat.bsky.social and @sturdyalex.bsky.social about my report "Who Is Labour For?", which argues that Labour has treated its values-based voters transactionally, and attempted to appeal to right-leaning transactional voters on the basis of values. This hasn't worked.
Josh Halliday
Dodgy graphic from a dodgy org but vaguely useful lesson in polling.
‘Stay Out’ includes ppl who want a closer relationship.
This doesnt contradict polls showing a Rejoin majority, it shows you the question being asked matters.
Force a binary and Rejoin wins. If not, there’s a spectrum of views.
Steve Akehurst
Referendums force a spectrum of opinion to ‘pick a side’ - and that’s what most Rejoin / Stay Out polls mimic - so yes comparing this to those polls is just dumb but there we go.
Obviously margins of error apply (4.8% here), and nicer to have more sample than not - but past a certain point it’s quality that matters. It’s good to be sceptical but for the right reasons - if polling like this is wrong it’ll be because getting the right sample at constituency level is hard.
This has made X even more unusable than ever but frankly it's what those of us who were too weak to quit it deserve; to be confronted with our life choices, left to wallow in a vast slop emporium of our own making.
Bring on more of it, i say
I think 518 people is not a small sample for a constituency poll
