The geopolitical risk firm that helps you understand the world. Founded by @ianbremmer.com. Putting politics first for 25 years.
Eurasia Group
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Trump’s recent softer stance on China clashes with his admin’s hardline approach.
Our expert David Meale says converting Trump’s positivity into actual policy change will run up against a deeply institutionalized Washington consensus on China risk.
Eurasia Group
The shift on the economic and security benefits of EU membership reflects new threats and challenges coming from beyond Europe’s borders.
Our expert Nick Reiners says there’s a sentiment that Europe’s only choice for survival is to team up.
@gzeromedia.com
Iran has demonstrated that it has the power to close the strait and keep it closed, even in the face of immense US and Israeli bombardment, says our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social.
“And that is something no one will ever be able to take away from them.”
It’s easy to say that countries should have been better prepared for the energy supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Our expert Henning Gloystein says these type of disruptions occur every decade, and the reliance on two suppliers created a structural vulnerability.
Cuba’s former President, Raúl Castro, turned 95 today.
Though he stepped back from official duties in 2021, he continues to serve as a symbolic leader and general of Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces.
#HardNumbers via @gzeromedia.com:
Geopolitically, the world is in turmoil. But financial markets are riding high.
Are investors wrong? @ianbremmer.com outlines the three prime forces that will shape the next several years for global politics and markets:
@gzeromedia.com
Our expert Jeremy Chan says the division within the South Korean conservative party hampered its prospects with swing voters.
The PPP did surprisingly well in some contested districts, incl. the Seoul mayoral post, which could indicate a 2028 revival.
Israel defied pressure from President Trump and responded to Tehran's ballistic missile attack with their own strikes against Iran.
The move comes amid increasingly widespread negative views of Israel around the world.
#GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com
Three major factors likely to shape economic and political outcomes over the next several years:
➡️Politically unconstrained AI development
➡️A shift from the logic of globalization to zero-sum thinking
➡️Heightened international tail risks
@ianbremmer.com unpacks for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social
Our expert Amanda Hsiao argues that there is little risk of a military invasion of Taiwan in the near-term.
China believes its long-term strategy is working, and that unification will become easier and less costly over time.
@warontherocks.bsky.social
