Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
Glen Peters
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Norway's emissions have gone down 1.2% in 2025, after reductions of 4% & 5% in 2024 & 2023, but how much is policy?
Road transport continues down at a good rate, driven by electric vehicles, & this is policy.
Many of the ups & downs relate to things like maintenance, not policy.
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There is an El Niño on the way, even a super El Niño, but we are not there yet. By some reports it will reach the biggest El Niño ever by the end of the year.
There is a delay between El Niño & climate effects, so it is expected to effect CO2 & temperature most in 2027.
robbieandrew.github.io/ppm/
Global CO2 emissions have slowed down, therefore we expect atmospheric CO2 to be lower than if emissions continued to grow.
I did a figure quite similar to @hausfath.bsky.social a while back & it is the same story (& similar numbers): www.theclimatebrink.com/p/plateauing...
But, is it correct?
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Glen Peters
The Tesla Model Y was the top-selling car in Australia in May, the first time an EV has topped the charts. The recently introduced emissions standards are starting to have an effect.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/?la...
Glen Peters
Glen Peters
Robbie Andrew
Zeke & my calculations above are "correct", in the sense that if we have more emissions we have higher atmospheric CO2. (I used a very simple airborne fraction).
But, the atmospheric growth rate does not indicate emissions have slowed. This relates to feedbacks, & is somewhat of a concern...
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Glen Peters
Block you calendars...
21-25 June 2027, Exeter, UK
The 12th International Carbon Dioxide Conference
Follow along for updates icdc12.org
The inverse question is actually harder...
Can we see in the atmosphere if global CO2 emissions have slowed? We would expect the atmospheric growth of CO2 in the atmosphere to slow, but it hasn't...
If emissions are correct, this would indicate carbon cycle feedbacks are playing a role.
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