Lecturer (assistant prof) at University of Birmingham. Grand Strategy; Politics of Decline/Declinism; Civil-Military Relations
https://sites.google.com/view/robert-ralston/home
Robert Ralston
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It’s funny that rich people nurseries have low-no tech and just endless amounts of wood
new from @mattmotta.bsky.social and me: Prediction markets are opening many new opportunities for unregulated insider trading and unethical bets – in the name of making a game out of politics
theconversation.com/prediction-m...
Not to make it All About Me but when you need a cite for how high gas prices affect public support for foreign policy (say because the WH just made this explicit) you can read my new @fpajrnl.bsky.social piece
academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
I am happy to share our new, open-access article in International Political Sociology: how enforced disappearance in Libya became a durable tool of authoritarian rule, from Italian colonial rule through Gaddafi to today. With Walid Ali & Iosif Kovras. Available here: doi.org/10.1093/ips/...
Prediction markets are turning US politics into a game.
Today in @us.theconversation.com, @robertralston.bsky.social and I discuss how prediction markets could impact the Midterms, and why some efforts to regulate them are challenging Trump admin. priorities.
theconversation.com/prediction-m...
We are saddened to learn of the passing of Duck contributor @raulpachecovega.bsky.social. He was a friend to all on their social science journeys. If anyone would like to write a tribute, please DM us.
Prediction markets may not be only influencing international affairs; they could also affect the 2026 midterm elections. @mattmotta.bsky.social & @robertralston.bsky.social sound the alarm theconversation.com/prediction-m...
The rapidly growing popularity of prediction markets is sparking worries about the markets’ effects on US politics, where campaign staff has bet on its candidate’s electoral performance.
DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced.
Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers.
5.6%.
New report out today with my friends at Verasight writing up a couple new studies I designed on AI “digital twins” in polling. The upshot is basically these tools are very inaccurate unless you have raw polling data to build on (which defeats the purpose!)
