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Nate Silver Tweets
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I believe that we will advance! And probably win Group D, though that's not strictly guaranteed. Winning the group does matter based on how the bracket lines up.
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Some theories about why we've seen such a high-scoring World Cup.
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Here's the basic logic for advancing to the knockout stage after a 3rd-place finish, which may be as good as Czechia and South Africa can do at this point. 4 points: Very likely in (not certain) 3 points: Probably in 2 points: Very unlikely (not impossible)
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We're through everyone's first game of the World Cup. Big themes IMO: • Team play > raw talent; Portugal the best example of the differential • High-scoring tournament (3.1 GPG) • Nearly all very watchable matches; teams #33-48 not bad * USA might actually be good?
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Australia might be better at soccer if they didn't try to play it like rugby
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There's zero reason for it to take days or weeks to tabulate ranked-choice votes. It's a simple algorithm as algorithms go.
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Group B math is simple: Canada wins the group if it beats or ties Switzerland, Switzerland finishes 1st if it wins. The model shows both teams as having clinched advancment in *some* form, though that isn't strictly deterministic (it means they advanced in 100k of 100k sims).
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This sucks, McMorrow's campaign has sucked, and it's a completely indefensible decision by @MIRSnews not to run the poll.
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The World Cup has been great so far, and FIFA is selling a lot of tickets. The cynicism about a 48-team format wasn't really warranted. However, it does create some awkwardness, with group-stage games being low-stakes and a weird bracket. The solution? Expand to 64.
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