The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors
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ICYMI New #FEDSPaper: The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... #EconSky
The authors estimate the decline in the valuation of mortgage servicing rights held by banks in a time of economic stress. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote #EconSky
Scale matters: China is much larger than during the first China Shock, so a given proportional shift in trade flows implies a larger global reallocation. The shock is also broader geographically and increasingly overlaps with advanced economies. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
ICYMI What is different about “China Shock 2.0”? It is not just an export surge: exports are rising much faster than imports, reflecting a more self-reliant strategy and pushing China’s trade surplus to unprecedented levels relative to the world economy. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
ICYMI Alternative scenarios often proved more accurate than the baseline forecast. New #FEDSPaper catalogs 1,265 'what-if' exercises from 1968-2020, tracking how Fed staff prepared for demand shocks, supply disruptions, and financial crises. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...
ICYMI New #FEDSPaper: Skill and Efficiency in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... #EconSky
New #FEDSNote: Mexico in US Supply Chains Lessons from 2018-19 Tariffs: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky
New #FEDSPaper: Slow Learning: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... #EconSky
Estimate: BNPL providers issued ~$160 billion in 2025, with “pay in 4” representing 50% of issuance and other short-/longer-term installment loans the remainder. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
New #FEDSNote addresses critical measurement gap in BNPL literature with first analysis beyond “pay in 4”. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky