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The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres.htm
FedResearch









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ICYMI New #FEDSPaper: The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... #EconSky
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The authors estimate the decline in the valuation of mortgage servicing rights held by banks in a time of economic stress. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote #EconSky
Scale matters: China is much larger than during the first China Shock, so a given proportional shift in trade flows implies a larger global reallocation. The shock is also broader geographically and increasingly overlaps with advanced economies. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
ICYMI What is different about “China Shock 2.0”? It is not just an export surge: exports are rising much faster than imports, reflecting a more self-reliant strategy and pushing China’s trade surplus to unprecedented levels relative to the world economy. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
ICYMI Alternative scenarios often proved more accurate than the baseline forecast. New #FEDSPaper catalogs 1,265 'what-if' exercises from 1968-2020, tracking how Fed staff prepared for demand shocks, supply disruptions, and financial crises. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...
ICYMI New #FEDSPaper: Skill and Efficiency in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... #EconSky
New #FEDSNote: Mexico in US Supply Chains Lessons from 2018-19 Tariffs: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky
New #FEDSPaper: Slow Learning: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds... #EconSky
Estimate: BNPL providers issued ~$160 billion in 2025, with “pay in 4” representing 50% of issuance and other short-/longer-term installment loans the remainder. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
New #FEDSNote addresses critical measurement gap in BNPL literature with first analysis beyond “pay in 4”. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky
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The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates
www.federalreserve.gov
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
Mortgage Servicing Right Valuations Under Stress
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
China shock 2.0: How China’s ongoing export surge differs from the early 2000s
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
China shock 2.0: How China’s ongoing export surge differs from the early 2000s
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
Skill and Efficiency in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
Mexico in U.S. Supply Chains: Lessons from 2018-19 Tariffs
“Buy Now, Pay Later” Beyond “Pay in 4”, A Comprehensive Product Overview
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
“Buy Now, Pay Later” Beyond “Pay in 4”, A Comprehensive Product Overview
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
Slow Learning