Stronger increase in predicted new employers in AI-intensive sectors using model-based projections (SBF8Q in BFS) but still dominated by likely new nonemployers. Model-based projections use detailed industry and other application characteristics.
BFS statistics released today show continued surge in new business applications in AI-intensive sectors. The surge is dominated by likely new nonemployers. Index for likely new employers is 1.3 (relative to base of 1 in 2019m1) in May 2026 but 2.9 for likely new nonemployers.
Congratulations to Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt and Joel Mokyr for a well deserved Nobel Prize. It was nice to see the US Census Bureau's Business Dynamic Statistics featured in the motivating evidence in the scientific writeup: www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2025...
Census Business Formation Statistics (www.census.gov/econ/bfs/ind...) released today for February 2025. Applications in High Tech (NAICS 51 + 54) show robust projected employer business startups over next 8 quarters. February shows recovery from January dip but not as high as December 2024.
New business applications for likely employers are a novel leading economic indicator, from Jose Asturias, Emin Dinlersoz, John C. Haltiwanger, Rebecca J. Hutchinson, and Alyson Plumb https://www.nber.org/papers/w33224
Projected new employer businesses remain high in High Tech sectors: Information (NAICS 51) + Professional, Scientific and Technical (NAICS 54)
New Business Applications increased in November 2024 remaining at high levels relative to 2019. Applications in November 2024 for likely employers 46% higher than average month in 2019.
The recent increase in US wage inequality is driven by a small number of industries, according to researchers at the University of Maryland, US Census Bureau, and IZA. High-wage workers are increasingly sorting into high-wage industries, such as high-tech. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/cha...
New BTOS AI Supplement from Census released today. AI use for any business function varies dramatically across sectors and firm size. In AI intensive use sectors, employment-weighted AI use 60-70% -- compared to 32% economy-wide employment weighted. See www.census.gov/library/work...
John Haltiwanger
John Haltiwanger
Using new Business Trends and Outlook Survey data, we find AI use prevalent in large firms and knowledge-intensive sectors; augments tasks; labor declines rare.
