To hold $135 at a generous 30x multiple, SpaceX needs ~$60B of annual net income. Last year it lost $4.9B. So it needs $65B in profit, somehow building out of thin air the profits of Bank of America ($30B) + Exxon ($25B) + Netflix ($11B). For reference, Tesla is a mere $4B.
What an opportunity!
/9
Starlink makes money, but it topped out and has to discount for new subscribers, ARPU fell from $99 to $66. On the rocket side, customer launches collapsed from 43 to 7 in a quarter (revenue -42%), the rockets mostly carry SpaceX's own satellites now. MechaHitler incinerates all profits anyway.
/6
I'm supposed to say SpaceX was profitable in 2024, but it wasn't, that $791M profit included a $659M non-cash tax benefit, fully reversed in 2025.
Operating income: +$466M ('24), -$2.6B ('25), -$1.9B (Q1 '26).
Net loss: $4.9B last year, $4.3B in Q1 2026 alone, all to poison Black neighborhoods.
/3
SpaceX's $1.8T "valuation" isn't real, it's manufactured by a tiny 4.2% public float. $1.8T is ~95x SpaceX's trailing revenue. Google IPO'd at ~7x revenue, Facebook at ~20x. This is Snowflake's multiple stapled to Rivian's capital burn, a combo with a flawless record of bagholders.
/2
Hi! I'm Bret Rhett Chet, here to tell you why you should buy and hodl SpaceX stonk. For a mere $135/share, you get pro forma tangible book value of $7.85/share, an immediate 94% dilution. New investors are putting up 48% of all capital ever invested in SpaceX in exchange for 4.2% of the shares.
/1
the cars don't drive themselves and we're still nowhere near Mars, but you can't question Elon Musk's ability to deliver screwworms and racial violence