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The Irish Polling Indicator combines all opinion polls into estimates of political support for Irish parties and Independents | Maintainer: @stefanmueller.bsky.social https://pollingindicator.com

Irish Polling Indicator

Latest @irishpollingind.bsky.social estimates: Sinn Féin: 24% [22–26] Fianna Fáil: 17.5% [16.5–19] Fine Gael: 17.5% [16–19] Ind/Others: 12.5% [11–14.5] Soc Dems: 8.5% [7–9.5] Aontú: 5% [4–6] II: 4.5% [3.5–5.5] Labour: 4.5% [3.5–5] Greens: 3% [2.5–4] S-PBP: 2.5% [2–3.5] ▶️ pollingindicator.com

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Very informative – and topical given two upcoming 22 May by-elections – article on Irish by-elections by UCD’s Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social on RTÉ Brainstorm: rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2026/0426/1569745-bye-elections-through-the-years-analysis/

Ahead of the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections next month, I’ve analysed, merged, and extended various datasets to gather insights from all bye-elections over the last century. Article now published at @news.rte.ie 📄 www.rte.ie/news/analysi... 15 stats based on this analysis ⤵️

📻 @kevcunningham.bsky.social and I talked about the state of the parties, public opinion, and the nature of Irish by-elections with @mcculld.bsky.social on @rteradio1.bsky.social this morning. ➡️ www.rte.ie/radio/radio1...

The chapter with @gailmcelroy.bsky.social analyses issue salience and positions. Housing and health were among the most salient issues for nearly all parties. Interestingly, immigration barely featured in the manifestos. Chapter: hdl.handle.net/10197/29172 Book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

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Irish Polling Indicator

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Latest estimates: Sinn Féin: 23% (21.5%–25%) Fianna Fáil: 18.5% (17%–19.5%) Fine Gael: 17.5% (16%–19%) Ind/Others 14.5% (12.5%–16%) Social Democrats: 7.5% (6.5%–9%) Aontú: 5% (4%–6.5%) Labour: 4.5% (4%–5.5%) Independent Ireland: 4% (3%–5%) Solidarity-PBP: 2.5% (2%–3.5%) Green Party: 2.5% (2%–3%)

The latest aggregated @irishpollingind.bsky.social estimates: SF: 22.5% [21–24] FF: 18% [17–19] FG: 18% [17–19] Ind/Oth: 13.5% [12–14.5] SD: 8.5% [8–9.5] AÚ: 4.5% [4–5.5] II: 4.5% [4–5.5] LAB: 4% [3.5–5] GP: 3% [2.5–3.5] SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5] ▶️ pollingindicator.com

Updated pollingindicator.com estimates after adding the most recent Ireland Thinks and RedC polls: SF: 22% [20.5–23] FG: 17% [15.5–18.5] FF: 16% [15–17] Ind/Oth: 12.5% [11–13.5] SD: 10% [9–11.5] II: 8% [7–9] AÚ: 5.5% [4.5–6] LAB: 3.5% [3–4] GP: 3.5% [3–4] SPBP: 2% [1.5–2.5]

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Exactly one year to the day after the general election, “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?” is now available in bookshops. ➡️ link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

Joe Humphreys covers our research on election campaigns, candidates, and voting behaviour in today’s Irish Times. 📰 www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2026... @irishtimes.com

Michael Gallagher

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Irish Polling Indicator

Stefan Müller

Irish Polling Indicator

Stefan Müller

Kevin Cunningham, Lecturer in Politics at TU Dublin and Founder of Ireland Thinks and Stefan Müller, Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at UCD.

www.rte.ie

State of the parties

What do bye-elections tell us about Irish politics? With contests due in Dublin Central and Galway West on 22 May, a century of results offers a sense of campaign strategies and voting behaviour.

rte.ie

Politics: What a century of bye-election data reveals

Exactly one year to the day after the general election, “How Ireland Voted 2024: The New Normal?” is now available in bookshops. ➡️ link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

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Stefan Müller