Political scientist studying how oppositions challenge dictators at home and abroad. Opposition parties, authoritarianism, elections, foreign policy, Southeast Asia. Postdoc @ Stanford CDDRL orensamet.com
Oren Samet
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That being said, huge victory. And vibes (as with elections) have consequences
I should note that the ideological convictions here are relatively shallow in the traditional sense: Orbán’s opponent Péter Magyar is quite conservative. But it’s more about vibes than policy positions. What’s clear is that it has very little to do with realpolitik
Hungarian election certainly portends a vibe shift in how we think and talk about the global health of democracy. But just as Orban’s rise probably occupied too much of the imagination previously, we risk over indexing on his loss as well. The broader systemic shifts are real and have implications
The Trump State Dept has been weaponizing the language of “values” to undermine the EU and advance far right political actors. Turns out one of its driving forces is a JD Vance protege barely out of college, described as a “savage conservative” www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/w...
Agreed. Huge hindsight bias in commentary on opposition strategies. Often structural conditions and opposition choices converge with a lot of luck in the mix
We can and should learn from successes across cases. But we don’t have to try and make everything into a ready-made formula for victory
